CLV is the single most predictive marker that an edge is real. Capture rate above
55% over a meaningful sample is consistent with a profitable model independent of
short-run win-rate variance.
Factor reliability
last settled · ranked by hit rate
Factor
Active
Avg score
Loading factor reliability…
Calibration
model edge vs realized win rate
80%70%60%50%40%
0–33–55–88–1212+
On line±2pp driftOff · investigate
By confidence
settled
Tier
W—L
Win rate
Sample
Loading…
By pick type
settled
Type
W—L
Win rate
Sample
Loading…
Honest read
where the engine wins · where it's still learning
Working
Pitching-led edges. The composite is the most stable factor on the
board. Sharp-money agreement adds points of edge when both align — high
conviction tier is paying as projected.
CLV capture above 55% is consistent with profitable model output
past noise.
Still learning
Recent-form factor has under-performed prior expectations on this sample;
weights have re-tuned this month.
Coors Field exposure remains a known variance black hole — the
model now caps Coors plays at lean. Weather instability days produce the most
coin-flip skips, by design.